The Big 3 have been making big news over the last week. Last weeks "press conference" in Miami that introduced the new trio was nothing short of a spectacle. But as I look at LeBron and Wade I can't help but feel that Chris Bosh may be the odd man out in Miami. I am not criticizing Bosh as a player. We all know he has talent. But his decision to play with the Heat could turn him into a hapless third option. What will his role be on this team?
For one, expect LeBron and Wade to get theirs. They both like to dominate the ball. The dynamic between them alone will be interesting. Who will control the offense? I would say in order to for the HEAT to be successful, LBJ and Wade have to dominate the ball. It is their natural playing rhythm. I can see them both trying to run the point at certain points of the game. I don't expect them to both shoot 20 times a game, but I do expect them to combine for somewhere around 35 shots a game. Last year Bosh, shot the ball around 16.5 times a game. The question is will he get enough touches to shoot this many times? If he does, then great but then you're looking at around 50+ shots from 3 players. The average NBA team hoists around 70-75 FG attempts a game. That's leaving 25 shots for your other two starters and your bench. Assuming, your average NBA starter shoots 8-10 time a game, that leaves your bench roughly 9+ shots. Something has got to give as no team could survive with 3 players doing it all.
If the Big 3 do shoot 50+ times a game, expect the offense to stagnate. But this will most likely not happen. What will happen is Bosh is likely to get limited touches, and limited shots and thus lower scoring. Imagine two Kobe Bryants on LA - how much would Gasol get the ball? Essentially Miami will be paying $14.5 million for a guy who will potentially average 15 and 10. Now Bosh is a guy who is capable for going off for 30 points on any given night, but the HEAT would be a much better team if they were the Dynamic Duo (LBJ + Wade) instead of the Big 3. And here's why:
Bosh is not a banger. He is on Miami to score. He has never been labeled as somebody who could D-Up on some of the NBA bigs. Shaq dropped 45 on him in 2009. He averages a little over a block a game for his career. He pulls down on average less than 10 rebounds a game. Basically Bosh is not there for his defense but for his offense. If Bosh is going to be primarily a scorer, where does that leave him in Miami's schemes? Is his defense worth $14.5 million a year. Miami might have been better suited to trade for a center like Chris "Birdman" Anderson, or Emeka Okafor when they cleared the deck in June. Somebody who just wants to bang, block shots, and clean up the glass. Somebody of a defense first mentality. They have could have still courted LeBron and Wade for the $14.5 million and had room to spare to acquire other role players.
Will Bosh be able to bang with the NBA bigs on a daily basis? With Miami having a target on their back this season, their defensive interior will be one of their biggest questions. Expect teams, especially DHoward & Orlando to try to exploit Miami in the middle every night. When it comes to playing Chicago, Orlando, Boston or possibly LA in a finals match-up, does Miami have the size and defensive toughness to compete in a 7 game series? How will they match up against a duo like Gasol and Bynum?
There is no doubt that Miami is one of the elite teams in the East if not the entire league. Right now the question is if Bosh will be the guy in the middle who will be able to bring defensive toughness for 82 games.
If he is the odd man out on offense, does Chris Bosh have what it takes to carry his weight on defense?
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